A.D.D.

I can't quite concentrate all that well now. I've also found, this lack of concentration has been growing on me for a while. I can't quite read a 6-page paper in one go any more, I stop after half a page, get fidgety, visit the web, look something up, something to distract the mind, and then I try to find something to distract my mind from that, and it goes on, continuously, till I just walk away to start something else, totally new, afresh.

Attention deficit disorder. And now I've found something I can blame it on: the internet and downloaded movies/sitcoms. Yes, they are clearly out to give lil ol me a hard time. Giving information on my fingertips became like giving a kid a gun, if you don't know how to use it properly, you could end up killing yourself.

Let's consider my typical browsing patterns, I have a small set of frequently visited websites that I end up spending most of my time on - email, chat, some social networking websites, some news/blogs, pretty much it. Add downloaded media and that's many hours of staying glued to the screen. Now the restlessness: chatting while watching a movie could be classified as multitasking for a minute, but I realized later, I'm waiting for the action packed parts of the movie, and am just leaving the lull moments to play in the background. Wow. I gained all these 'abilities' subconsciously. Now I have habits of checking my email 10X the rate at which I actually receive a post! 1/2 the posts are generic, boring reads or simply asking me for or to do something, anyway. How am I supposed to concentrate on something for dedicated time under such conditions?

Need to regain some of me from the past: the time when I hadn't heard of the internet, wasn't too far off, some 10-11 years ago. That's the time when I ended up appreciating a new concept because I had nothing better to do than to think about it over and over again, till I saw it from many angles and it became more than just another idea, it became a realization.

My 2 and a Quarter Cents on the Global Financial Crisis

Before I forget my entire thesis on the Global Financial Crisis, I have to pen it down. Note my disclaimer, I am no authority, and if you refer to this post, it is at your own peril.

Ronald Reagan came in in 1981 and in 2-3 years he successfully unleashed the free market forces and reduced the role of the Govt. Alongside, monetary transactions began happening over digital media, the widespread use of IT systems triggered the innovation of multiple financial products. Commercial banks were highly regulated in the US for historical reasons, and I-banks found work around, basically regulatory arbitrage, by a little something called Securitization. I-banks bought loans, pooled them, cut them and converted them to market tradable securities. Risk landed up in the hands of people who had no idea how to manage it. Meanwhile, the US went round the globe for purchasing consumables and outsourcing work and paid in USD. The USD is a strong currency not only because US is a majority share participant in global trade, but because all multinational transactions, like China buying Middle-East oil, happens using USD.

In the 90s, the US was the only superpower in a uni-polar world, and anyone in the globe with money wanted to invest US assets. After the tech bubble burst, investors didn't want to put their money in virtual businesses, they wanted real estate. It seemed real estate could never be too overpriced, and anyone with even a little creditworthiness will pay back. The lender will, anyway, sell these loans off, and would have recovered its loan. Then began the series of defaults, the bad debt writeoffs by I-banks, slowly dawned the expanse of the exposure, then the withdrawal of money from the markets and, ultimately, the crash. Liquidity for businesses is a short term concern, is this a recession? a depression?

Note to self: If I ever I do invest, it has to be in stuff that is simple and real and I have to be careful what I pay for it.

Change is Welcome

This world is experiencing a big change thanks to the global financial crisis. For 25 years, US consumption was driving the global markets, the US resident could live lavishly on large pools of credit just because bankers began to believe that real estate prices only go up and interest rates always stay down. So the excesses became fatal. Things will realign, balance out, redistribute. Bye bye Hayek, welcome back Keynes? Making money by speculating with others' won't quite be as lucrative as it was. For one who has his little savings all in the form of demand/term deposits, I am untouched by the current market crashes, and sort of feel like saying, "See, I told you so".

3 weeks later, the US will see its presidential election. Obama is like a wave (as my sister suggests). Hope he has the same energy he's maintained the past 2 years when he enters the white house. After Bush, anyone would be a pleasant sighting on the global hot seat, and this person will touch all our lives in hopefully positive ways. What touched me was Obama's attitude: his supreme confidence and deep belief that he is an agent for change. He'll win against all odds. It's amazing to see, when faith is true and deep, it shakes everyone elses faith and makes them believe in yours.